After buying a financial asset, everybody has a price at which they would sell. Concerning Bitcoin, even the most ardent supporters have one too. It just may be exorbitantly high. If each Bitcoin were worth $1B tomorrow, all things kept equal, then it would probably be sufficient to entice the strong hands to sell.
It struck me yesterday, that Bitcoin is the first investment that I have ever seen where savvy investors (yes, I am going to call some Bitcoin holders savvy, particularly those who have bought and sold securities for a long time) can say with a straight face: “I bought at $1, but I’m not selling nor spending until $100,000.”
These people aren’t selling at $100, after a 10,000% gain, but nor are they buying, being anchored in the reality that it would be foolish to risk more than they already have. They are resting in the vast expanse that is – what appears to me – to be the largest spread (at least on a per person basis) in history.
When has this happened before, where people are willing to wait patiently for decades for their assets to appreciate 5 orders of magnitude? Not only do they believe that this is possible, they are expecting it.
We have entered an entirely new wacky place. Last night my wife and I had dinner with some friends who knew that we were Bitcoin enthusiasts. “How are those Bitcoins doing?” my friend asked, hinting at the recent price drop. My wife and I looked sheepishly at her, “well, yes, they have undergone a large correction, but they are about $95 today.”
Later, I kind of snapped out of it and said privately to my wife, “When was the last time that you’ve felt like a 1000% appreciation on something purchased 2 years ago was anything other than a groundbreaking miracle?”
I acknowledge that my mind has been warped by dreams of a better future, and it’s exhilarating. I have little doubt that Bitcoin is going to be one of the most significant inventions of the century, and if it is somehow killed off in the coming years, it won’t be done quietly. Battle lines would have to be drawn before it burned up in a blaze of glory.
Until the day of reckoning, win or lose, I’ll be hanging out in Bitcoin purgatory, somehow feeling like $100,000 is a totally reasonable price target.
If you’re here with me, I just wanted to say hello.